Goops’ Blog, 20/21 Predicting The Unpredictable (GW3-4)

Tom’s good mate FPLGoops is back for another season, writing a weekly FPL diary from the perspective of an “FPL Everyman”.

Follow him on twitter @FPLGoops. 

When you press the wildcard button you’re taking a punt for the medium term.

You can’t just play for the week ahead, but clearly you want to see an immediate return on your chip play.

With only 2 weeks of data, you are still predicting the unpredictable.

You need to have the right structure to give you success on Wildcard.  Imbalancing to play the fixtures rarely works out.

After some thought I decided the time was right to press the button ahead of GW3.  You’ll recall I was wavering.

There were certain players not delivering the goods and others I desperately wanted whose prices were rising.  It was time to act.

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GW3 Review

 

My wildcard started well enough with a Calvert-Lewin goal.  The player I most overlook was finally in my team and provided an instant reward.

From that point on, though, it went horribly downhill.

Werner blanked even though Chelsea did manage 3 goals in a strong comeback againt the Baggies who belied their status as fodder.  He’s not scored in the PL yet.  My mood is not that much improved to see him score midweek in the cup! Ings removal for Martial has proven an awful decision.  Ings can’t stop scoring – I’ve again fallen into that trap.

I’ve spoken before about picking tried and tested players vs new players to the PL.  Some new players hit the ground running, but I think as a rule it’s better to watch and learn how they adapt and stick with those with PL experience.  Werner was in my team because of fixtures and potential.  Not because of form.  I’m already tempted to bin him or Ings – I can’t afford Vardy (more on him shortly) and I’m not taking a hit straight after a wildcard.

Sunday was a total horrow show.  There is nothing worse than seeing the defenders you binned deliver clean sheets (and bonus points!) whilst those incoming have stinkers.  Ayling vs Saiss is one such example.  What a horrible points swing!

I’d bought in Foden to double up with KdB.  at 6.5m and getting proper gametime with both Aguero and Jesus out, what’s not to like? City will score for fun.  KdB was my captain.  Both blanked in a coupon busting 5-2 home defeat.

One thing I did dodge, though, was Son. He got 4 goals in GW2 and had a tasty home fixture vs Newcastle – you could easily rationalise that move (and trust me I toyed with it for ages) but the imbalance in the squad did not sit well. It would have meant no Liverpool defender, and eventually I – thankfully, it turned out – resigned myself to accepting Son FOMO for the weekend.

Elsewhere, Vardy’s hat trick and 4th penalty of the season is one non owners have to take on the chin.  We like Vardy.  We know Vardy is the postman.  However at 10m he was deemed to be poor value against the great promise of Werner and relative value of Jimmy and Ings.

Not to worry – I still had triple Wolves to come.  Jimmy who we know is a great FPL asset – not explosive but boy is he consistent.  Podence, starting the season so far forward as a 5.5 midfielder.  What value.  And Saiss at the back who had a barnstorming GW1 and looks a solid option.

… and I ended up with 1 point from 3 players. 1 measly point!  That Jimmy OG from a Soucek assist (yes I sold him too) had me at breaking point.  15 points from 7 on the field.  Burke 3 pointer off the bench.  This was, by a mile, the worst wildcard I’ve ever played.

In one of my mini leagues we are playing an Eliminator game where the worst team each week is ejected until we have last team standing.  By the end of Sunday I was in real danger of realising a most uncomfortable fate – the first ever to be eliminated playing their wildcard!

Fortunately I had 2 Liverpool players to come in Salah and Robertson. Robbo’s horrendous defending to gift Arsenal the lead and wipe his clean sheet looked to be condeming me to my worst nightmare but he rallied, scored, and between then Emi Martinez in Villa’s goal, and my 2 Liverpool assets contrived to more than double my points total.

Let’s face it – 39 on Wildcard is still horrific – but it looked as if I may not break 25 at one stage! Still I was seething.

I’d also had my first captain blank as early as GW3 – it was brutal.

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Goops’ Unexpected Star of the Week

Son going off at half time was a relief for me as I was fully expecting him to hurt me for overlooking him on the wildcard.  Instead it was a lucky escape.

I have to give the unexpected star accolade to Jamie Vardy.  It’s not unexpected that he can deliver points but to bag a hat trick away at Man City. That’s the stuff of dreams for owners who were no doubt expecting a 6 pter at best.

Yes a lot of goals are penalties but the goal from open play was absolutely sublime.  Hats off to you – if only I didn’t need a hit to bring him in.

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Doodle Corner

Jeremy aka fpldoodles1 is back with his witty visual take on the gameweek.

This week he calls out big spenders Chelsea on their near embarrassing defeat at whipping boys West Brom:

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Goops’ Weekly FOMO Pick

If I don’t make the move, then my biggest FOMO lies squarely on Danny Ings!  He could haul big.

If I do make the move then my FOMO lies squarely on Werner who I will have removed to accommodate him. You see where my head’s at!

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GW4 Strategy

I’m very tempted to knee jerk but my best strategy is to hold 2FT into the international break.

Barring any real injury concerns (Podence is a doubt) I am still tempted to move Werner out to Ings.  Ings has the Baggies at home.  Targeting Fulham and West Brom still feels the most obvious strategy.  I’ve every expectation Timo will punish that move but, given his position off the left, I just can’t see him outscoring Ings.

However Ings is then away at Chelsea and home to Everton, so holding the transfer and being patient has more merit.

I just don’t want to miss an Ings hat trick!

Captaincy is a tough call.  Wolves have this habit of underperforming against the weaker teams but Fulham are really terrible and I think Jimmy will make up for his zero pointer last week. He’s edging it over KdB right now.

I’m actually quite excited by my bus team.

In fact I have to choose 3 from 4 of Robbo, Reece James, Justin and Saiss – all who have decent fixtures.

Up front, DCL vs Brighton could see him chalk up a 3rd successive home hattrick.  Jimmy at home to Fulham has great potential and even Werner at home to Palace could give me a major boost.

I definitely need one after last week!

Good luck all!

Goops